In February of 2015, the BC Provincial government released its annual budget plan. While issues like healthcare, education, and the projected surplus gained most of the media attention, BC Non-Profit Housing Association wanted to look at how the budget affects subsidized housing. Using BC Housing Annual Reports and Service Plans (released alongside the budget), we put together an infographic that shows some recent and long-term trends in housing policy.  

BC Budget 2015: What does it mean for housing?
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Funding levels of housing programs

In the first section of the infographic, we highlight the funding levels of housing programs and how they are projected to fluctuate between 2014-15 and 2015-2016. Looking at these short-term trends is useful because it allows us to better understand where the province’s housing funding priorities lie. The numbers show that the province places a strong emphasis on emergency shelters, homelessness services and transitional housing, which is broadly reflective of the shift in housing policy away from long-term funding for independent social housing.

There’s no doubt getting people off the streets and into housing is critical, however we need an affordable, secure housing supply to make this happen. Unfortunately funding priorities are not reflecting this reality. Emergency and short-term housing is estimated at $335 million in 2015/16, while funding levels for independent social housing lag behind at $206 million.

Funding relationship between the provincial and federal government for housing programs

For every dollar that the federal government contributes, the provincial government contributes $2.50. This figure is reflective of two broad trends occurring in housing policy over the last 20 years. The first is that the federal government has not developed any social housing supply programs since 1993 (except on-reserve). The second reason is that the federal government began to devolve responsibility for social housing portfolios to the provinces back in 1996, which means that the provinces are now primarily responsible for housing policy. While the federal government has provided some piecemeal funding through the Affordable Housing Initiative/Investment in Affordable Housing, it has not been enough to keep up with growing demand.

One of the dominant trends moving forward is that households living in core housing need in BC will increase by approximately 2,200 households per year while the provincial and federal governments have only managed to fund 1,700 units a year on average. If we project this out, it means we will have a minimum shortfall of 12,000 units by 2036. It should be noted that this number is a conservative estimate that does not examine factors such as affordable housing stock lost to reconversion and demolitions, or more rapid increases in core housing need due to income and labour market issues. Nonetheless, a shortfall of 12,000 units will certainly result in more homelessness and housing insecurity for lower-income groups.

Trends in subsidized housing

The charts at the bottom of the infographic take a longer-term perspective and show trends in subsidized housing over the last 10 years. The chart on the bottom left demonstrates the relationship between provincial and federal spending levels over the last 10 years. While housing at the provincial level more than doubled between 2006 and 2015 (in part due to devolution of social housing portfolios to the provinces), it has recently levelled off. Federal spending increased over the course of 2008-2011 due to more than $2 billion in stimulus spending for social housing allocated under Canada’s Economic Action Plan. Now that this funding has evaporated, federal funding has trended downward, and will continue to do so because of expiring operating agreements. 

Related to this last point, the graph at the bottom right looks specifically at funding levels for independent social housing over the last 10 years, and highlights the impact of expiring operating agreements. Operating agreements are long-term subsidy arrangements (usually between 35 and 50 years) with social housing providers to cover mortgage costs and keep rents affordable for low-income tenants. The bulk of these agreements will expire over the next 20 years, and while many projects will be viable and providers will be able to keep rents affordable, others will be forced to raise rents to ensure the building remains financially viable. This growing affordability squeeze will contribute to homelessness as it leaves society’s most vulnerable citizens with few housing options. 

The lesson learned from infographic is that although the provincial government has attempted to provide at least some support for subsidized housing (although mostly in the form of rent supplements and shorter-term housing), more needs to be done. Both levels of government need to step up and create permanent and long-term independent social housing if we are to truly have an impact on homelessness.