Was Chicken Little Right? Case Studies on the Impact of Expiring Social Housing Operating Agreements

This research study was commissioned by CHRA to illustrate possible outcomes with the expiry of subsidy agreements for social housing. The study seeks to raise awareness among providers, funding agencies and governments of both the implications of expiry and some possible remedies to protect the long-term availability and viability of social housing assets. A crosssection of 20 individual projects across different programs and different regions is used to illustrate possible outcomes at expiry. These are augmented by three portfolio-level case studies.

The review of projects asks two key questions:

a) Will the project be viable when the operating agreement expires? That is, will it generate enough rental income from RGI and, where applicable, market units to cover operating costs? b) Does the project have sufficient capital reserves combined with ongoing allocations to replacement reserves to meet the need for expenditures on capital replacement?

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